by QuantumNinja
Highland Cow wrote:
What a terribly inaccurate prediction, given that it was made so close to the end.
(currently 647k at t minus 110 minutes)
(currently 647k at t minus 110 minutes)
Given that the funding increased by close to $160k in the last two days alone, I'm not sure any reasonable model that was trying to give a modest estimate could have accurately predicted the final outcome.
There were probably a ton of people sitting on the fence about pledging until they saw the funding get close to the $600k mark (incidentally, I'm one of them), and a bunch of backers may have encouraged their friends to contribute once the final stretch goal was unlocked ("Hey man, it's your last chance to take advantage of this amazing deal... better hurry!").
That's not to mention the fact that they allowed backers to make double pledges only with the last 4 days of the project, and I'm sure a ton of people took advantage of this once the final stretch goal was unlocked (maximum value for your dollar at that point).
It would have been very difficult, if not impossible, to estimate the magnitude of these "snowballing" effects beforehand.